74. In this argument the author predicts a nationwide labor shortage in the near future.
The basis for this prediction is an increasing demand for highly skilled workers,
especially in technical and professional fields, coupled with a slow-growing labor force
and a government proposal to cut funds for aid to education. At first glance, the author's
argument appears to be somewhat convincing: but further reflection reveals that it is
based on some dubious assumptions.
In the first place the author assumes that the present labor force is immobile and
that the demand "for highly skilled workers will have to be met by workers who are
entering the labor market for the first time. Recent American history, however, shows
that this assumption is entirely unfounded. At the beginning of the Industrial Revolution
most Americans were farm workers, but by the end of that revolution most had become
factory workers. Thus, even though the labor pool remained relatively constant during
this period, the number of farm workers decreased and the number of factory workers
increased. This example clearly demonstrates the mobility of the labor force.
In the second place, the author assumes that the government proposal to cut funds
for aid to education will have a significant negative impact on the ability to train
workers in technical and professional fields. The fact is, however, that the percentage of
students who rely on government aid for their education is relatively small, so the effect
of such cuts would be negligible.
In conclusion, this argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument the
author would have to show that the present work force was relatively static and that the
proposed ours i educational aid would have a deleterious effect on the numbers of high
skilled workers available to enter the work force in the future.
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