The housing bubble was the first to burst, but it will not be the last in this global recession. These days, it’s the impending bust of the dollar bubble that should be getting more attention.
The U.S. dollar has been severely overvalued since the late 1990s, which has led to an enormous trade deficit that peaked at almost 6 percent of U.S. GDP in 2006 ($900 billion in today’s economy). This is unsustainable. Eventually, it will force the dollar to fall to a level where trade is close to balance.
That process was already gradually underway. The recent crisis, however, has sent investors scrambling to the dollar for safety, causing it to soar against most other currencies. The rising dollar, coupled with recessions in much of the rest of the world, will cause the trade deficit to rise again.
But once the financial situation begins to return to normal (which might not be in 2009), investors will be unhappy with the extremely low returns available from dollar assets. Their exodus will cause the dollar to resume the fall it began in 2002, but this time, its decline might be far more rapid. Other countries, most notably China, will be much less dependent on the U.S. market for their exports and will have less interest in propping up the dollar.
For Americans, the effect of a sharp decline in the dollar will be considerably higher import prices and a reduced standard of living. If the U.S. Federal Reserve becomes concerned about the inflation resulting from higher import prices, it might raise interest rates, which could lead to another severe hit to the economy.
As for 2009, the ongoing collapse of the housing bubble, the coming collapse of the commercial real estate bubble, and the ensuing wave of bad debt will all be major sources of drag on the U.S. economy—even if the dollar bust happens later.
Indeed, subprime mortgages were just the trigger for a much broader crisis. Plunging house prices are now leading to record default rates on prime loans as well, with most of the fallout ahead of us. We’ll also see much higher default rates on car loans, credit card debt, and other forms of consumer debt, because homeowners can no longer draw on their home equity to pay other debt.
Commercial real estate faces its own reckoning. When the housing market began to fade at the end of 2005, it kicked off a boom in nonresidential construction. In less than three years, this sector expanded more than 40 percent. There is now considerable excess capacity in retail space, office space, hotels, and other nonresidential sectors—leading to falling prices, plunging construction, and another major source of bad debts for banks.
In short, beware the happy talk from those who say we are “turning the corner,” ignore the daily ups and downs of the market, and tighten your belts. This is going to hurt.
供给住房泡沫经济是第一个崩溃的产业,但它不是这次世界经济衰退的最后一个。这些天,濒临崩溃的美元将受到更多的关注。
从上个世纪九十年代开始美元就严重的过高估价,在2006年美国的GDF中已经使得经济贸易赤字6个百分点(当今经济中的9000亿中)这是不能支持的,最终,它作用于美元,使它降低到一个使贸易可以趋于平衡的水平。
这个过程已经在逐渐地趋进,目前的危机,不管用何种方法,为了安全起见,已经抛出投资者对美元的不规则性,引发了美元的高速影响了很多其他流通,在世界经济冰眠时期,高涨的美元加上商业的衰退,将引发又一次的贸易逆差
但如果财务状况复苏到正常情况下(不可能是2009年),投资者对于可利用的资产得到低利润的回报持不满意态度,他们的撤资将会引发美元再次的降低到2002年时的情景。但这次,它下降的幅度将远远大于以前。其他国家,尤其是中国,他们的进口,很少依靠美国市场,也很少有兴趣支持美元。
对于美国,美元高速的贬值的影响是非常高的输入价格和一个降低水平标准。如果美联储开始关心由于通货膨胀产生的输入高价,可能提高利率,那样将更沉重的打击经济。
至于2009年,供给住房泡沫经济的倒塌,将带来房地产贸易的倒塌,相继带来的呆账将是拖住美国经济的主要力量——即使美元崩溃的时间再延长也于事无补。
甚至,对于一个非常广泛的危机,最初的低价只是一个序,突进的房价也是导致现在报告拖延费用还不如最初的借贷。在我们前面,附带了很多的附加结果。在汽车借贷中,我们也看到了更高的拖延费用,信用卡债务,以及其他形式的消费债务,因为私房所有者不再能够利用房子的净值去偿还其他的债务。
商业房地产面临着自身的清算,在2005年底,当住房供给市场开始衰退时,非住宅建筑业沸沸扬扬。在不到三年的时间里,这部分膨胀了40个百分点,在零售业中,政府机关,旅店以及其他的非居住建筑的过剩的生产能力是值得去考虑的,这些导致了贬值,高速建出的建筑以及其他主要的资源使用,对银行来说是更坏的债务。
简而言之,小心那些人乐观的说:我们已经转危为安。忽视日常市场的盛衰, 节减度日,将会是很让人心痛的。
责任编辑：mman
